PPP has done full scale polls in three Congressional districts that George W. Bush won by double digits in 2004:
Congressional District | 2004 Result | PPP 2008 Result | Net Change |
5th | Bush +33 | McCain +19 | D +14 |
8th | Bush +9 | Tied | D+9 |
10th | Bush +34 | McCain +21 | D+13 |
As you can see Obama is doing an average of 12 points better than John Kerry in these deep red districts, and it's not particularly surprising. There are not enough voters in the state's major urban centers to explain Obama tied or even leading in the polls in North Carolina given how much George W. Bush won the state by. He has to be making gains in every part of the state to explain his surprising success.
Some of those districts have been hit particularly hard by economic struggles over the last four years, and we've found that's causing some former Bush supporters to turn over to Obama.
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