Saturday, September 27, 2008

McHenry is wrong

Apparently today Congressman Patrick McHenry claimed that Barack Obama is only making in roads in the Democratic parts of North Carolina.

PPP has done full scale polls in three Congressional districts that George W. Bush won by double digits in 2004:

Congressional District

2004 Result

PPP 2008 Result

Net Change

5th

Bush +33

McCain +19

D +14

8th

Bush +9

Tied

D+9

10th

Bush +34

McCain +21

D+13


As you can see Obama is doing an average of 12 points better than John Kerry in these deep red districts, and it's not particularly surprising. There are not enough voters in the state's major urban centers to explain Obama tied or even leading in the polls in North Carolina given how much George W. Bush won the state by. He has to be making gains in every part of the state to explain his surprising success.

Some of those districts have been hit particularly hard by economic struggles over the last four years, and we've found that's causing some former Bush supporters to turn over to Obama.

No comments:

Post a Comment