Obama in Virginia

Barack Obama's approval rating in Virginia is down to 42% among likely voters for this fall's election, while 51% disapprove of him. That's a strong decline from a positive 48/46 spread a month ago. And only 14% of voters in the likely electorate say a visit from him will make them more likely to vote for Creigh Deeds, while 37% say it will make them less likely to do so.

On the surface that makes joint appearances with Obama look like a bad idea for Deeds, but it actually underscores just how important his support is. The reason his approval numbers are so bad among people planning to vote in the race for Governor is that so many people who voted for him last year aren't planning to come out. If he can help get his supporters more energized to vote for Deeds the race will get a lot closer.

There's a remarkable level of polarization in Obama's approval numbers with 92% of Democrats but only 3% of Republicans expressing support for his job performance. Independents split 54/34 against him as well.

One key number though: among undecideds Obama is quite popular, with a 56/27 approval rating.

If this poll was weighted to reflect a Presidential year electorate Obama's approval spread would be 50/44, basically the result at the polls in Virginia last year. So looking toward his own prospects for winning the state against in 2012 he's basically where he was last November.

Some other notes from this poll:

-35% of respondents said they'd be less likely to vote for Bob McDonnell if Sarah Palin campaigned for him while 26% said they'd be more likely to do so. Among undecideds the spread was 17/37.

-Tim Kaine has seen a decline in his approval rating over the last month as well, going from 49/38 to 42/40.

-One politician overcoming the Democratic blues is Mark Warner. He was at 57/31 and he's now basically unchanged at 56/32. The Warner card may ultimately end up doing more good for Deeds than the Obama card.

Full results here