Thursday, May 1, 2008

Obama and North Carolina's neighbors

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him:

State

Final Real Clear Politics Average

Actual tally

Closest Poll

South Carolina

Obama +12

Obama +28

Obama + 20 (PPP)

Virginia

Obama +18

Obama +29

Obama +22 (Survey USA)

Georgia

Obama +18

Obama +36

Obama +22 (Strategic Vision)


In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

Things are going much worse for Obama right now than they were when any of those three states voted but North Carolina is relatively similar demographically to them- a large black population, plenty of college educated liberals, etc. It will be interesting to see if Obama manages to outperform the polls in our corner of the South once again.

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