Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Obama takes the lead in Ohio

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 43

With a commanding lead among voters most concerned about the economy, Barack Obama has taken back the lead in Ohio after trailing by four points in a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago.

61% of Ohioans list the economy as their biggest concern, up from 36% compared to a similar poll in January. Among those voters Obama has a 58-34 advantage over John McCain.

Much of the movement in Obama's direction since the last poll has come from a tightening among white voters. Where McCain previously had an 18 point advantage it is now just 6. Given the overwhelming support of black voters for Obama, McCain probably can't take the state without at least a 12 point advantage with whites.

Another key factor for Obama is that he is doing a much better job of holding onto the Democratic vote now than he was in previous surveys. He has an 84-9 lead with folks in his own party, compared to 78-16 last month. For all the bluster it appears that most of Hillary's supporters have come home.

Full results here.

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