It's that time of year. The science of bracketology has yet to enliven talk around the water cooler, the official start to the 2011 baseball season is still a month away (no, spring training doesn't count), and all the backchecks, forechecks, and stick-checks are about as meaningless as the top shelf or the five hole. (Yes, this blogger admits she's a philistine.)Which leaves us with Oscar drama. The Black Swan or The King's Speech? Sorry, not The Social Network. An Oscar nod to a film about a 26-year-old and a company that stands to raise a gazillion dollar IPO is a little like giving a 40-something president in his first term the Nobel Peace Prize. (Oh, wait a minute.)
Far from Hollywood's glitterati, there's been plenty of drama in the biotech industry this week and a couple of Oscar- (er, Roger?) worthy performances. Roche's Genentech continues to challenge FDA, trying to position itself as David against a regulatory Goliath in the ongoing brouhaha surrounding Avastin's use in breast cancer and the FDA Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee's decision to rescind accelerated approval.
On Feb. 24 Genentech said a hearing to review the decision will go forward, but within ODAC itself. That's not what the drugmaker wanted; it was pressing for "an objective advisory committee with substantial breast cancer expertise," arguing that the recent ODAC session was underpowered in this indication. But FDA will use its ODAC to make the decision, with Commissioner Margaret Hamburg's designee Karen Midthun arguing the rules don't allow FDA to substitute a different advisory committee. (Recall Avastin use in this indication was shot down 12-1 in the December meeting.)
Moreover, FDA won't be adding additional consultants to the current ODAC panel, arguing that the controversial nature of Avastin's breast cancer approval makes it difficult to find additional unbiased panelists. "We must face the reality that many experts in this area have already expressed a view on this issue and/or might be considered as having conflicts of interest because of their association with one of the parties to the hearing or competitors to Genentech," said Midthun.
To add to the excitement, the biopharma community won't just be watching, it will actually be in town when the ODAC convenes. The meeting coincides with BIO's national wheeling and dealing event in DC in late June. No word on whether FDA will roll out a red carpet in advance of the event, but we're guessing it's not in the regulatory body's budget.
Other biopharma events worth a call-out this week? For best stoic performance, the leading candidate has to be David Bredt, Eli Lilly's beleaguered head of neuroscience, who unexpectedly resigned this week. And for best comedy of errors, in a sequel to the Bad News Bears, Johnson & Johnson is clearly the leading nominee. The big pharma continues to hamstring its own R&D advances with manufacturing slip-ups. This week came news of problems with its Simponi injector and a recall of more than 660,000 Sudafed packages due to a 'not'-ty typo in the label that reminds consumers the following: "do not not divide, crush, chew, or dissolve the tablet." That's got to be a nomination for worst proofreading in a major consumer product label, not to mention an affrontery to the King's English.
We don't have the envelope yet, but odds are the winner for most insightful deal analysis is going to be...
Gilead Sciences/Calistoga: For the DOTW Oscar for best performance in a competitive space, with a nod to a separate category -- risk-sharing -- look no further than this week's tie-up between Gilead and privately-held Calistoga. Gilead announced February 25 it would pay $375 million in upfront cash, plus another $225 million in potential milestones, to take out Calistoga, one of the most closely watched entities in the PI3K inhibitor space. The on-the-table dollars represent a 4.6x increase over the $81 million the four-year-old start-up has raised from its venture investors, which include Frazier Healthcare, Alta Partners, and Three Arch. It's also one of the richest deals yet in the PI3K space, an arena big pharmas are eager to enter because the signaling pathway involved is implicated not only in oncology, but also inflammatory disease, cardiovascular disorders, and neuro-degenerative conditions. The acquisition gives Gilead a Phase II asset and a basket of interesting, highly specific but early-stage PI3K blockers. It also deepens the big biotech's commitment to oncology, building on its 2010 acquisition of CGI Pharmaceuticals and that firm's kinase discovery engine. Gilead's decision to make Calistoga its base of oncology expertise via the creation of a stand-alone Seattle division is probably smart but could be tricky to execute. Recall Gilead's commercial strength remains squarely in the anti-infective space and the strategy to acquire oncology capabilities is one other biotechs have tried and failed to replicate in the past. Biogen (via the Idec merger), for example, never grew into the dominant oncology player it planned to be and has since jettisoned that half of its business, betting that focus not diversification will be the greatest path to shareholder value. The onus on Gilead is to ensure the Calistoga team, especially its R&D and early clinical development execs, stay on board; the earn-out structure may help in that regard. -- EFL
TiGenix/Cellerix: Belgium-based regenerative medicine player TiGenix and Spanish cell therapy firm Cellerix propose to combine forces via a share exchange to create “a new European leader in cell therapy." The enlarged company will have two marketed products in Europe (including the first ever cell-therapy product to be approved by the European Medicines Agency, TiGenix’s ChondroCelect), two stem cell platforms (TiGenix’s allogeneic one, and Cellerix’s autologous one), and at least €33 million in cash that will last two years minimum. Indeed, both sides have concurrently secured additional financing from their shareholders, signaling investors’ general support for the deal. TiGenix has secured €10 million of a planned public rights offering, while Cellerix’s investors have committed the final €18 million of a €28 million round that began in late 2009. The hope is the newly enlarged group will provide investors a better shot at getting a return. Since its inception Cellerix has raised about €60 million as one of Spain’s first biotechs, and this deal values the Barcelona-based group at about the same. In the short term, the combined group may be better placed to lock in an interested big pharma partner. Importantly, Cellerix’s platform, based on expanded adult stem cells extracted from adipose tissue, creates off-the-shelf products that are less complex and expensive to create and administer than TiGenix’s ChondroCelect, which requires harvesting a patient’s own cells. Signs that big pharma is no longer running away from cell therapies? Think Cephalon’s December 2010 deal with Australia’s Mesoblast, GlaxoSmithKline’s toe-dipping with Harvard Stem Cell Institute, and Sanofi-Aventis’ tie-up with the Salk Institute. -- Melanie Senior
Forest Labs/Clinical Data: Much of the buzz around this week’s merger agreement between Forest and Clinical Data was around valuation. Forest is paying $30 per share, or $1.2 billion, plus up to $6 per share in contingent milestones to get ClinData’s antidepressant vilazodone, which was approved in January in the US for major depressive disorder. The price was less than ClinData’s prior Friday closing price of $33.90 and only a 6.6% premium over the volume-weighted average trading price since the vilazodone approval. But there’s considerable risk attached to vilazodone; hence the contingent payout to shareholders, which begins to kick in at $1 per share if trailing four-quarter sales exceed $800 million within five years. The drug label looks “clinically undifferentiated to us,” Leerink Swann noted, adding that the lack of an active comparator in trials “makes it difficult to tease out any meaningful benefits.” That said, it also believes Forest can get solid formulary coverage for the drug based on its track record with payors with its existing medicines -- Celexa and Lexapro -- and the strength of the new brand in a category that’s become genericized. (Lexapro, for example, goes generic next year. ) Vilazodone’s development is a true success story for ClinData, which got the drug via its 2005 acquisition of Genaissance Pharmaceuticals for $55 million, and ultimately for the Genaissance team, which had licensed vilazodone from Merck KGAA in one of its early pharmacogenetics programs. But like Vanda and its schizophrenia drug iloperidone, ClinData did not fully execute on the original premise for the development of vilazodone: i.e. its initial evaluation using pharmacogenetics would lead to a drug approval in parallel with a biomarker that would direct the drug to an enriched patient population for which it would show a more favorable risk/benefit profile. Indeed, for psychiatric drugs, that kind of targeting still seems a long way off. -- Mark Ratner
Kyowa Hakko/ProStrakan Group: Best foreign drama has to be the evolving Prostrakan/Kyowa Hakko tie-up. Three months after putting itself up for sale, U.K.-based specialty pharma ProStrakan might be teaming up with Japan's Kyowa Hakko Kirin. The 130 pence-per-share deal, announced Feb. 21, values the company at about £292 million ($475 million). If finalized, ProStrakan would provide Kyowa a commercial presence and regulatory expertise in Europe and the U.S. that would be useful as it looks to commercialize its pipeline assets outside of Japan. The two companies are already familiar biz cronies: Kyowa is a licensee for two of ProStrakan's products in Japan and other Asian countries. The price represents a 41% premium to ProStrakan's share price one day before its offer period began in November 2010, and it's supported by more than 47% of the specialty pharma's shareholders. But most analysts believe it undervalues the U.K. group. ProStrakan suffered a series of regulatory and manufacturing setbacks in 2010, sending its shares to an all-time low of barely 40 pence in September. That led to an unsolicited offer from privately held pan-European Norgine (which, when rejected, went on to buy a 12.6% shareholding), and, subsequently, ProStrakan's decision to put itself up for sale. The logic behind the move: fix ProStrakan's internal commercial and regulatory issues and then secure a reasonable sale price. The first has happened, but the second hasn't, according to some. "A fair price would have been 160 pence per share," Nomura Code analyst Samir Devani told sister publication "The Pink Sheet" DAILY. The current deal values ProStrakan at about 2.7 times revenues, less than the 3.5 times revenues paid by Meda for U.S.-based specialty pharma Alavan Pharmaceuticals in August 2010, and well below the (admittedly punchy) 4.5 times revenues paid by Biovitrum for orphan-diseases focused, pan-European player Swedish Orphan in November 2009. -- Melanie Senior
Roche/Transgene: And finally, the DOTW Oscar for best performance in the face of adversity goes to Transgene, which this week announced its big pharma partner Roche was pulling out of a collaboration to develop the smaller company's TG4001, a Phase 2b therapeutic vaccine for lesions caused by Human Papilloma Virus infection. The good news (also known as the spin): Roche's decision won't have a significant impact on Transgene's financial situation, at least in the short term. Also, the termination won't slow down the ongoing Phase IIb trial, which is structured to test the vaccine in over 200 patients. Transgene already has 195 patients enrolled in its mid-stage study, and anticipates interim data by the end of the year or early in 2012. In addition, Transgene "regains full and unencumbered development and commercialization rights to the product" according to the press release announcing the news. That means when the licensing deal officially concludes this summer, Transgene can look for another deep-pocketed partner to help prepare a registrational trial. Will another pharma bite? Specialty products and especially vaccines are all the rage these days, and Trangene emphasized in its press release that the "no deal" was the result of a strategic decision by Roche, and "is not data driven." The question is who might have greater strategic interest in HPV than the Swiss pharma, which via its diagnostic business is developing its cobas HPV test to individually detect HPV-16 and HPV-18, the two HPV genotypes causing 70% of cervical cancer cases. (Interestingly, the Swiss pharma published new positive data about the test this week in the American Journal Of Clinical Pathology.) -- EFL
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