Thursday, July 30, 2009

Politics of Sotomayor

Richard Burr's opposing the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, and it's not going to do him any political damage.

There are a couple basic reasons for that. The first is that there's not a meaningful Hispanic vote in North Carolina yet. The second that is that most voters are paying little to no attention to the confirmation process- this is not exactly something that was going to show up in a tv ad (at least an effective one!) no matter how Burr voted.

The biggest reason though is he did what was expected- voted the conservative Republican Party line as he has on pretty much everything for the last four years. He's not going to get whacked for this issue more than he would on any other issue.

I don't think there's really any help or hurt for Republicans who oppose Sotomayor- that's just seen as the party line. But there may be some advantage in going outside the box and supporting her. Just look at Chris Christie in New Jersey- he said she should be confirmed and now has a 50-33 lead with Hispanics in our most recent poll even as 67% of them approve of Barack Obama's job performance. We'll see if that bump is real or temporary but either way it's an eye opener.

If Burr had supported Sotomayor he would have had good material for a mailer to suburban independents and Democrats showing that he was willing to be more than an obstructionist . But ultimately this is not going to play a role next year.

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